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Pollster Nate Silver calls Ocasio-Cortez most likely to be 2028 Democratic presidential nominee

  • Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, predicted during a 2025 podcast that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
  • Silver’s forecast was influenced by a Spring 2025 Yale Youth Poll of 4,100 registered voters, nearly half aged 18-29, showing Ocasio-Cortez’s strong favorability among younger demographics.
  • Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Representative and self-described socialist, gained prominence after defeating Joseph Crowley in 2018 and has campaigned nationwide with Senator Bernie Sanders on a 'Fighting Oligarchy' tour.
  • Galen Druke, Silver’s podcast co-host, stated that Ocasio-Cortez has “broad appeal” within the Democratic Party, with a net favorability around +60, matching Kamala Harris’s ratings in recent averages.
  • This prediction reflects growing momentum for Ocasio-Cortez as a frontrunner, but analysts note that formal candidacies for 2028 remain some years away and outcomes are still uncertain.
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RedState broke the news in Washington, United States on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
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