US EditionWTO downgrades global trade growth forecast to 0.5% for next year
The World Trade Organization credited AI-related goods for 42% of 2025 trade growth but warned tariffs and economic cooling will slow growth to 0.5% in 2026.
- The World Trade Organization raised its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August, but cut the 2026 outlook to 0.5% from 1.8%.
- Surging AI purchases and front-loaded imports into the United States drove an unexpectedly strong first half of 2025.
- WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said "42 percent of global trade growth came from AI-related goods-- far out of proportion to their 15 percent share in world trade," with shipments rising 20% and Asia supplying nearly two-thirds of growth.
- Transport services are set to slow sharply, with growth falling from 4.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, pressuring shipping companies as Asia and Africa lead export growth while North America declines.
- The WTO warned that front-loading will unwind as inventories are drawn down, global GDP growth eases from 2.7 to 2.6, and high uncertainty clouds 2026 prospects.
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Observador
Noticias ao MinutoThe World Trade Organization now plans an increase of 2.4% in global trade in goods this year, but it anticipates a strong deterioration in 2026, to only 0.5%.
WTO hikes global trade forecast for 2025
This year has been defined by global trade turbulence, yet more goods are set to move across borders in 2025 than in 2024, according to new World Trade Organization estimates. After US President Donald Trump unveiled sky-high tariffs in April, the WTO forecast that global trade would contract by 0.2%; but many duties have since come down, while purchases of AI-related equipment — semiconductors, computers, cloud servers — have propped up cross-b…
Artificial intelligence products and the rise in U.S. imports before Donald Trump’s tariff hike will increase the volume of world trade by 2025, the WTO warned on Tuesday, but the outlook for 2026 is less encouraging. The World Trade Organization has modified its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties about the impact of the new tariffs by the U.S. administration. By 2026 “it is difficult to make conclusions as there is much unce…
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