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$2,000 Tariff Dividend Checks Highly Unlikely This Year, Betting Odds Suggest

Experts estimate tariff revenue at $195 billion, insufficient to fund $2,000 checks and reduce national debt as proposed by President Trump.

  • Yesterday, President Donald Trump proposed using tariff revenue to issue $2,000 checks to middle- and lower-income Americans but offered few specifics on the plan.
  • Against those claims, government collections indicate the Treasury Department reports about $11 billion and CBP about $117 billion, far below White House and Trump figures.
  • Experts warn, tariffs are a net negative, shrinking the economy by about 0.6 percent and costing over 600,000 full-time jobs, according to Tax Foundation.
  • A $300 billion price tag means a $2,000 rebate for eligible adults under $100,000 would exhaust tariff collections and require deficit financing, leaving nothing to reduce the $38 trillion national debt.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court challenge involves emergency tariffs, which account for about $120 billion in revenue, and importers expect refunds if ordered, with experts warning of significant consequences.
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The Washington Post broke the news in on Tuesday, November 11, 2025.
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