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Seven Days, High Stakes: Can India Secure a Trade Deal Before Trump’s 7 August Tariff Breather Ends?

INDIA, JUL 31 – The U.S. aims to address its trade deficit and India's Russian imports with a 25% tariff plus penalty, while India prioritizes protecting sensitive sectors and cautious negotiations.

  • On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff plus a penalty on India, effective August 1, 2025.
  • India had assumed Washington DC would maintain a tariff differential of 10-20%, but those assumptions eroded after Trump announced a 25% tariff and an unspecified penalty.
  • Bilateral trade data show the US imported $87.4 billion from India in 2024, and India had a trade surplus of about USD 44.4 billion, with the US accounting for about 18 percent of exports.
  • An official said 'No deal is better than a bad deal' as India's Commerce and Industry Ministry emphasized protecting farmers, small businesses, and MSMEs.
  • With timelines disrupted, India’s negotiators maintain October as the outer deadline for a deal, despite unlikely progress before September.
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Bloomberg broke the news in United States on Thursday, July 31, 2025.
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