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The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight for control is wide open
Both parties are spending heavily as Democrats widen their path to the 51-seat majority and Republicans defend vulnerable seats in several battleground states.
With less than two months until Election Day, control of the Senate has shifted from a presumed Republican stronghold to a highly competitive toss-up as both parties intensify spending.
President Donald Trump's job approval on the economy fell to 32% in July, down from 40% in March 2025, while trade policies and the war in Iran have fueled voter uncertainty.
The midterm campaign is expected to exceed $3.4 billion in total spending; last week, MAGA Inc. invested $10 million in television and digital ads supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune admitted last week that he does "worry" about losing the chamber, while Democrats see opportunities to flip seats in Maine and Michigan.
Republicans maintain the math still favors them, noting Democrats must flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the majority.