US EditionTaiwan Conflict Could Cost China $10T, Report Finds
The German Marshall Fund report estimates losses up to $314 trillion and warns conflict risks destabilizing China’s economy, military strength, social order, and global standing.
- In recent years, a GMF-hosted report examined how use of force against Taiwan would affect the PRC's economy, military, social stability and international costs, comparing limited conflict and major war scenarios.
- Xi Jinping, PRC leader, has tied his legitimacy to national rejuvenation and views Taiwan unification as essential, while report authors modeled costs to illuminate Xi's risk calculus given leaders sometimes overlook high costs for political gains.
- After months of heavy fighting, the scenario models Chinese forces losing roughly 100,000 personnel, while Taiwan suffers about 50,000 military and 50,000 civilian casualties, and the United States and Japan incur specified losses.
- The essays warn a failed PRC operation would risk massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, social unrest and sanctions, with a major-case termination seeing the PLA withdraw but keep Kinmen and Matsu Islands.
- Regional research trends show Japan's proximity and about 55,000 U.S. soldiers in Japan raise stakes, while scenarios include PRC blockades and United States warships escorting commercial vessels.
19 Articles
19 Articles
The Roots of Red Aggression: Understanding China’s Belligerence Toward Taiwan
By any measure of international affairs, few issues are as consequential or as misunderstood as the Chinese Communist Party’s belligerence toward Taiwan. Although Western analysts often frame the Taiwan Strait crisis as a legacy of an unfinished civil war or a matter of national reunification, this perspective misses the ideological, strategic and existential foundations of the CCP’s obsession with the island democracy.
A War Over Taiwan Is a $10 Trillion Risk
I’m Malcolm Scott, international economics enterprise editor in Sydney. Today we’re looking at what a war over Taiwan would cost the global economy. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X (formerly known as Twitter) via @economics. And if you aren’t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here.
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LatestlyChina could suffer up to 100,000 casualties in failed Taiwan invasion: Report
China could suffer up to 100,000 troop deaths in a failed Taiwan invasion and be forced to retreat, though it may hold Kinmen and Matsu, a report says. The study outlines heavy losses, prolonged fighting and limited international responses in both major and minor conflict scenarios.
China would suffer 100,000 fatalities in Taiwan invasion: Report - Focus Taiwan
China could sustain up to 100,000 military fatalities if it invaded Taiwan through amphibious landings, resulting in its ultimate retreat, but it would likely gain control over Taiwan's offshore Kinmen and Matsu islands, according to a report published Monday by an American think tank.
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