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Fitch Affirms India’s ‘BBB-’ Rating with Stable Outlook, Flags Fiscal Risks Despite Resilient Growth

Fitch projects India's robust 6.5% growth in fiscal year 2026 supported by GST reforms despite tariff challenges and fiscal weaknesses, with risks from US tariffs expected to ease.

  • On August 25, 2025, India moved to consider tax cuts and GST tweaks as US President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs starting August 27; the Centre proposed a 2-tier GST structure.
  • Fitch Ratings warned that US tariffs pose a moderate downside risk and add uncertainty despite exports to the US accounting for just 2% of GDP.
  • Growth and fiscal data indicate Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 6.5 for FY26 with a deficit of 4.4% of GDP, noting proposed GST reforms "would support consumption, offsetting some of these growth risks".
  • Despite tariff risks, domestic demand is expected to remain solid, supported by public capex and private consumption, though Fitch said tariffs would reduce India's China+1 shift benefits.
  • Fitch's August 25, 2025, statement noted India's stable 'BBB-' rating with high capex and Pay Commission salary hikes amid limited subsidy cuts and revenue-negative GST reforms.
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cna.com.tw broke the news in on Sunday, August 24, 2025.
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