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Japan's core inflation accelerates in September, stays above BOJ target

Core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, driven by higher energy and food costs while service-sector inflation slowed, influencing the Bank of Japan's cautious rate decisions.

  • On Friday, Japan's core consumer prices rose 2.9 per cent year-on-year in September, matching median market forecasts and accelerating from a 2.7 per cent August reading.
  • Supply-Side pressure from energy costs and food prices, which rose 7.6 per cent excluding volatile fresh items, lifted headline inflation, with the core-core CPI easing to 3.0 per cent in September.
  • Service-Sector prices rose 1.4 per cent while goods prices jumped 4.2 per cent, and the Bank of Japan exited stimulus last year, raising short-term interest rates to 0.5 per cent in January.
  • The BOJ will scrutinise the data at a two-day meeting next week when the board debates keeping interest rates steady at 0.5 per cent and issuing fresh forecasts.
  • Abhijit Surya of Capital Economics said `As things stand, both inflation excluding fresh food and inflation excluding fresh food and energy are on track to meet or overshoot the BOJ's forecast for the ongoing fiscal year`, but recent weeks' messaging remains cautious and the BOJ may wait until January before resuming rate hikes.
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El Economista broke the news in on Thursday, October 23, 2025.
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