US EditionWTO downgrades global trade growth forecast to 0.5% for next year
The World Trade Organization credited AI-related goods for 42% of 2025 trade growth but warned tariffs and economic cooling will slow growth to 0.5% in 2026.
- The World Trade Organization raised its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August, but cut the 2026 outlook to 0.5% from 1.8%.
- Surging AI purchases and front-loaded imports into the United States drove an unexpectedly strong first half of 2025.
- WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said "42 percent of global trade growth came from AI-related goods-- far out of proportion to their 15 percent share in world trade," with shipments rising 20% and Asia supplying nearly two-thirds of growth.
- Transport services are set to slow sharply, with growth falling from 4.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, pressuring shipping companies as Asia and Africa lead export growth while North America declines.
- The WTO warned that front-loading will unwind as inventories are drawn down, global GDP growth eases from 2.7 to 2.6, and high uncertainty clouds 2026 prospects.
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World trade exceeded expectations at the beginning of 2025, i.e. before the introduction of tariffs, wrote the World Trade Organization in its latest report, but once the impact of taxes has passed, the outlook could darken.
Geneva, Switzerland. Artificial intelligence products and the rise in U.S. imports before Donald Trump's tariff hike will increase the volume of world trade by 2025, the WTO warned on Tuesday, but the outlook for 2026 is less encouraging.The World Trade Organization has modified its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties about the impact of the new tariffs of the U.S. administration. By 2026 “it is difficult to make conclusions a…
While AI boosts world trade, the WTO is concerned about an uncertain future in the face of tariffs and calls for a rethinking of globalisation.
It is increasing its forecast for trade growth by 2025, thanks to AI and US pre-tariff storage.
Global Trade Forecast Slump: WTO Revises 2026 Predictions Amid U.S. Tariffs
The WTO has reduced its 2026 forecast for global trade volume growth to 0.5% due to the delayed impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, trade systems showed resilience in 2025, bolstered by a spike in imports and AI-related goods trading.
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