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Why the China-US Trade War Truce Won’t Last

  • The United States and China agreed on May 12, 2025, in Geneva to a 90-day truce that reduces tariffs substantially on bilateral trade.
  • The truce follows repeated failed attempts since the Trump administration’s 2019 Phase 1 deal, which was never fully implemented amid ongoing strategic competition.
  • The United States reduced its tariffs on goods imported from China from 145% down to 30%, while China responded by lowering its retaliatory tariffs on US products from 125% to 10%; both countries agreed to maintain these adjustments for 90 days as trade discussions continue amid ongoing tensions.
  • The tariff reductions triggered global markets to rally, but experts emphasize that underlying issues like trade deficits, industrial competition, and geopolitical rivalry remain unresolved.
  • This agreement likely represents a temporary pause in a long-term, frozen conflict as both countries maintain strategic goals that suggest continuing trade tensions ahead.
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Behind the first truce between Washington and Beijing in the commercial war also Chinese concerns about the situation in textile companies that work in subcontracting for the big brands. China Labour Bullettin recorded protests and closures in April. The local authorities try to limit damages with informal mediations hoping for recovery.

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The Diplomat broke the news in Tokyo, Japan on Wednesday, May 14, 2025.
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