The U.S. will 'absolutely' have a recession in 2025 if high tariffs stay, Apollo's Slok says

Monterrey, Mexico.- The International Finance Institute (IFI) revised its growth estimate for the U.S. economy and now anticipates a slight recession in the third and fourth quarters of this year, considering the greater uncertainty about Trump’s trade policies, inflation and growth. In an analysis, the IIF indicated that it now assumes that real GDP will contract at an annualized rate of 0.8 and 0.3 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2…

There’s only one way the U.S. avoids a recession

The U.S. is probably not in a recession, but it’s looking inevitable unless there’s a dramatic shift from the White House on trade.

Recession ‘absolutely’ will happen if Trump’s tariffs remain, financial expert says

‘We will have bankruptcies of retailers of very significant magnitudes if this is allowed to continue,’ Torsten Slok says

Trump needs to start talking about the bullish policy too: Berman

Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Group, put out a report on the weekend suggesting a 90 per cent chance of a tariff-induced U.S. recession.

The U.S. will 'absolutely' have a recession in 2025 if high tariffs stay, Apollo's Slok says

The economist expects the odds of an economic downturn are 90% and says GDP will fall 4 percentage points if current tariffs remain in effect.

Why a top economist thinks the odds of a tariff-fueled recession have climbed to 90%

Robert Alexander / GettyThe risk of a recession this year has spiked to 90%, according to Apollo's Torsten Sløk.That's because tariffs could result in a big blow to small businesses, a major pillar of the economy.Trump's current tariffs could end up impacting 4 percentage points of GDP, Sløk estimated in a note.There's a simple reason tariffs have made a US recession highly likely, according to Apollo Global Management's top economist.That's bec…