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Weaker UK jobs data may offer inflation relief to BoE

Payrolls fell by 43,000 in December while private sector wage growth slowed to 3.6%, the lowest since 2020, reflecting employer caution amid inflation concerns.

  • On Jan 20, Britain's jobs market weakened in the run-up to finance minister Rachel Reeves' November budget, with wage growth slowing in official Office for National Statistics measures.
  • ONS payroll data showed a sharp monthly fall with December payrolls dropping the most since November 2020, and the November payroll revision lowered the decline from 38,000 to 33,000.
  • Vacancies unexpectedly rose, according to Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, with a 10,000 rise to 734,000 in December as the pound weakened; Kennedy said, `But a clearer improvement in the UK economic outlook is likely needed before hiring activity picks up more meaningfully.`
  • The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in February as officials watch pay measures, while analysts say further jobs reports by March could prompt rate cuts.
  • Private-Sector pay growth excluding bonuses has slowed to 3.6%, year-on-year wage expectations settled around 3.5-4%, and headline CPI at 2% target could allow Bank Rate at 3.25% by June.
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Cambridgeshire Chambers of Commerce broke the news in on Monday, January 19, 2026.
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