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Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms

VIRGINIA, JUL 7 – Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger leads in fundraising and polls amid concerns over federal layoffs affecting 320,000 Virginians, making the race a key midterm indicator.

  • In July, The Hill reported that Virginia's gubernatorial race is a 'key bellwether,' rated 'lean Democratic' by the forecasts and seen as a crucial test for 2024 trends.
  • Building on Virginia’s past, Harris carried it by 5.7% in 2024, Republicans haven't won since 2004, and Youngkin's 2021 upset underscores its swing state status.
  • A Roanoke College survey shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 43% to 26%, with Spanberger raising $6.5 million and holding over $14 million in the bank, compared to Earle-Sears' $3.5 million and less than $3 million in cash.
  • Strategists warn that the November 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race outcome will signal prospects for the 2026 midterms, with Democrats viewing a Spanberger win as a positive indicator.
  • Meanwhile, Virginia's governor cannot seek re-election in 2025 due to term limits, while both states have nominated candidates, shaping future political contests.
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The Hill broke the news in Washington, United States on Monday, July 7, 2025.
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