Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms
VIRGINIA, JUL 7 – Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger leads in fundraising and polls amid concerns over federal layoffs affecting 320,000 Virginians, making the race a key midterm indicator.
- In July, The Hill reported that Virginia's gubernatorial race is a 'key bellwether,' rated 'lean Democratic' by the forecasts and seen as a crucial test for 2024 trends.
- Building on Virginia’s past, Harris carried it by 5.7% in 2024, Republicans haven't won since 2004, and Youngkin's 2021 upset underscores its swing state status.
- A Roanoke College survey shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 43% to 26%, with Spanberger raising $6.5 million and holding over $14 million in the bank, compared to Earle-Sears' $3.5 million and less than $3 million in cash.
- Strategists warn that the November 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race outcome will signal prospects for the 2026 midterms, with Democrats viewing a Spanberger win as a positive indicator.
- Meanwhile, Virginia's governor cannot seek re-election in 2025 due to term limits, while both states have nominated candidates, shaping future political contests.
12 Articles
12 Articles
Arlington Democrats shoot for 3-to-1 victory margin to help Spanberger
For Arlington Democrats, the number to beat on Nov. 4 is 51,465. That's the difference between the number of votes cast in the county, in 2021, for Democrat Terry McAuliffe (73,013) over Republican Glenn Youngkin (21,548). McAuliffe lost that race, falling short by about 64,000 votes statewide. This year, the Arlington County Democratic Committee has
Time to rally the troops: GOP's Winsome Sears trailing in Virginia gubernatorial bellwether race · American Wire News
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, is currently grossly underperforming poll-wise in the state’s bellwether gubernatorial race. Polling averages maintained by RealClearPolitics show Earle-Sears’ Democrat opponent, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, leading her by a noticeable 6.6 percentage points. But the latest recorded poll, conducted by Roanoke College in early May, showed Spanberger ahead by a whopping 17 percentage points. …
Porn sites still accessible in Virginia despite age verification law and more state headlines • Virginia Mercury
The state Capitol. (Photo by Ned Oliver/Virginia Mercury) • “Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms.” — The Hill • “Porn sites still accessible in Virginia despite age verification law.” — Axios • “The feds’ hidden immigration weapon: Virginia’s surveillance network.” — VPM • “Virginia Democrats are eyeing 13 potential seats that could flip blue this year.” — WVTF • “Southwest Virginia localities to get more than $1.86 million in…

Porn sites still accessible in Virginia despite age verification law and more state headlines
• “Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms.” — The Hill • “Porn sites still accessible in Virginia despite age verification law.” — Axios • “The feds’ hidden immigration weapon: Virginia’s surveillance network.” — VPM • “Virginia Democrats are…
Republicans try a novel pitch: Make Virginia 2021 again
The NewsVIENNA, Va. — Gov. Glenn Youngkin spoke for a lot of Virginia Republicans last week when he invited voters “on a little walk down memory lane.”The man who’d led Virginia’s Republican Party out of exile four years ago returned to the trail for a packed July 1 rally inside a fire station for the statewide ticket. He called on Republicans to unite and recapture, almost beat for beat, the platform that worked for them in 2021.“Virginians cam…
'Key bellwether': Swing state governor's race could spell trouble for Trump — and the GOP
In November 2025, Democratic and GOP strategists will be paying close attention to the outcome of gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. The nominees have been chosen in both races: Democratic former Rep. Mikie Sherrill is up against GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, while the nominees in Virginia are Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.In an article published on July 7, The Hi…
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