US Midterm Election Betting Surges Past $1.4 Billion as Democrats Score Major Wins
- On Tuesday, nearly $1.9 billion had been wagered on U.S. midterm elections across Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets as of Monday evening, marking record betting levels for election contracts.
- Prediction markets have shifted into the mainstream, with Kalshi valued at $40 billion in its latest fundraising round last month and Polymarket at $21 billion in August, reflecting surging institutional backing.
- Financial technology worker Noah Poser built quantitative models to track dozens of wagers, while Florida State University student Yadin Eldar bets on races he considers "extremely underpriced" for potential 50-55% profits.
- Legal challenges from a bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general in New York and Utah have alleged the platforms operate as illegal gambling, while Polymarket recently investigated dozens of midterm trades for potential insider manipulation.
- Industry leaders prioritize "long-term development and credibility" over election outcomes, though critics contend the platforms function as "gambling, just disguised as predictions," raising questions about sustained regulatory acceptance.
41 Articles
41 Articles
Why is Trump worried about midterms? US midterms will be a great test for forecasting markets. Kalshi and Polymarket, which already add more than $1.48 billion (R$8.13 billion) to electoral bets, need to show that their forecasts are reliable, amidst increasing pressure on the sector. Platforms gained prominence in 2024, when they opposed traditional opinion polls by pointing Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Since then, th…
As the U.S. midterm elections began on the 3rd (local time), related platforms are enjoying a boom as trading volume in this year's prediction markets has hit an all-time high. According to an analysis by the Washington Post (WP) on that day, the volume of midterm election-related trading by Americans was tallied at approximately $1.9 billion (about 2.5 trillion won) as of the previous afternoon. Of this amount, $1.3 billion was traded on the pr…
US midterm election betting surges past $1.4 billion as Democrats score major wins
Betting on the 2026 US midterm elections has crossed $1.4 billion, putting prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket to a major test. Strong Democratic gains have triggered sharp movements in election-related contracts, drawing attention to the platforms' growing influence. However, concerns over manipulation, insider trading and forecasting accuracy continue to challenge their credibility as political forecasting tools.
Prediction markets face midterms test as election bets soar | Honolulu Star-Advertiser
WASHINGTON >> With more than $1.48 billion wagered on today’s midterm elections, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are facing their biggest test yet of how reliably they can forecast political races amid growing scrutiny of their businesses.
Prediction Markets Face High-Stakes Test in Midterms
Prediction markets that rode to fame by calling President Trump's 2024 win are now staring down their biggest test yes: Tuesday's US midterms. More than $1.48 trillion has been held on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which as of midday were giving Democrats roughly 94% odds of capturing the...
The Straits Times
Times of IndiaPrediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soar
Prediction markets face their biggest US midterms test as record election bets raise questions over accuracy and market manipulation. Read more at straitstimes.com.
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