Prediction markets vs. polls: Who got the election right?
Kalshi and Polymarket picked the winner in nearly every major race, while late polls often understated Democratic margins, a review found.
9 Articles
9 Articles
Forecast markets, especially Kalshi and Polymarket, are being credited for accurately anticipating the democratic victory in Congress in the mid-term elections of 2026, often projecting results before the polls or traditional media calls close. Before the first ballots close on Tuesday (3/11), the [...]
The Blue Wave Was Not That Surprising If You Followed Prediction Markets
The election last night was clearly a victory for Democrats. But was it a surprise? For the most part, no, especially if you follow prediction markets. Here's what the Senate map looked like on ElectionBettingOdds.com the night before the election: Of course, there are still a few surprises on that map, such as Iowa, South…
TexasFornia Here We Come...Blue Crushes Orange and The Prediction Markets Were The Big Winners (for the moment)
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Bias Distribution
- 80% of the sources are Center
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