Kalshi and Polymarket Midterm Odds Favor Democratic Sweep
Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket points to a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, with nearly $1.9 billion already wagered on election contracts.
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Bookmakers estimate the Democrats' victory in Congress at 95% and in the Senate at 78% more than an hour after the start of the US elections.%
Bookmakers estimate the Democrats' victory in Congress at 95% and in the Senate at 78% more than an hour after the start of the US elections. This follows from the Polymarket data, which was analyzed by TASS.The amount of bets in the House...
Prediction Markets Signal Potential Democratic Sweep of Congress in Midterms
TL;DR Polymarket gives Democrats a 94% chance of taking the House and a 76% chance of winning the Senate. Kalshi shows similar expectations, with probabilities of 94% and 75%, respectively. A Democratic-controlled Congress could increase crypto oversight, reshape digital asset legislation and intensify scrutiny of Trump-linked crypto businesses. Prediction markets are pointing to a potential ...
US Midterm Elections 2026 Latest News: What Are Prediction Markets Saying? Kalshi Gives Democrats 93% Chance of Winning House, 74% for Senate | Here’s What You Need to Know
The 2026 midterm elections have attracted nearly $1.9 billion in combined trading activity across major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prior to the closing of the polls on November 3, Polymarket and Kalshi assigned Democrats between 75% and 94% chance of controlling the two chambers of Congress. A possible change of majority could also modify who heads committees with competence over cryptocurrencies.
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 34% of the sources lean Left, 33% of the sources are Center, 33% of the sources lean Right
Factuality
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