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UK Faces Demographic ‘Turning Point’ as Deaths Set to Outnumber Births in 2026: Resolution Foundation

The Resolution Foundation projected deaths will outnumber births in Britain this year, marking a demographic turning point in its New Year Outlook released on Monday.
A record-low fertility rate of 1.4 in England and Wales shows the demographic cause, while international net migration has plunged three-quarters to around 200,000 a year.
Historically, births exceeded deaths almost every year since the 20th century, but the Resolution Foundation projects `2026 may be the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin`.
From 2026 onwards any growth will rely on international net migration, Ruth Curtice warned this could mean fewer people of working age and higher taxes to fund public services.
With migration dominating the agenda, parties clash over policy choices as Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood pledge to cut net migration amid Nigel Farage and Reform UK's calls to scrap indefinite leave to remain and pursue mass deportations.

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'Turning point' in UK birth rate may mean less workers and higher taxes

2026 is expected to see the start of a long term British trend of deaths outnumbering births. A think tank says future population growth will depend on immigration.

2 days ago·United Kingdom

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More migrants won’t fix Britain's falling birth rate

One of Britain’s most influential think tanks rang in the new year with a dreary look at what lies ahead in 2026. Cheerfully subtitled “Early and encouraging signs of a mild zombie apocalypse”, a Resolution Foundation update predicted that UK growth would be anaemic this coming year. Tucked away at the end of the document was a section speculating that 2026 could be the first year in modern times when deaths outnumber births in Britain. The auth…

2 days ago

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