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Trump won with major inroads among minority voters: Research

  • Kamala Harris lost the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, prompting debate on whether voter persuasion or turnout caused her defeat.
  • Analysis found higher turnout likely would not have helped Harris because she faced a defection from the Democratic base amid limited enthusiasm.
  • Donald Trump broadened his 2024 support by capturing 40% of voters younger than fifty, strongly outperforming his opponents among individuals without a college degree, and securing 54% of the electorate who did not vote in 2020 but participated in 2024.
  • Pew Research shows Trump narrowed the Hispanic vote gap against Harris to 48% versus 51%, down from Biden’s 61%-36% margin in 2020, while Trump’s gains were driven largely by differences in voter turnout.
  • The results suggest Trump's diverse voter coalition and high turnout among his supporters decisively contributed to his 2024 victory, while full turnout likely would not have changed the overall popular vote margin significantly.
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NBC News broke the news in United States on Sunday, January 19, 2025.
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