The South Caucasus at risk: Why Iran’s stability matters

The South Caucasus at risk: Why Iran’s stability matters

The recent protests in Iran, with a still unconfirmed number of casualties, have sparked widespread speculation about the long-term viability of the Islamic Republic. While much international analysis has focused on Tehran, the most acute and dangerous consequences of a deep destabilization would likely be felt in the country’s peripheral regions.  For Armenia and Azerbaijan, neighbors of northwest Iran, the fall or violent collapse of the regim…

Iran’s “Balkanization” Is Unlikely But Still Can’t Be Ruled Out

Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, all of which have been Iran’s “frenemies” since 1979 and whose military-strategic interests are increasingly converging, are expected to exploit any large-scale instability that could follow another potential round of US strikes if Trump changes his mind. The Wall Street Journal recently published a provocative piece by Melik Kaylan about how “A Fractured Iran Might Not Be So Bad”, with the subtit…