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Australia Risks Becoming a ‘Welfare State’ without Spending, Productivity Fixes

AUSTRALIA, JUL 21 – The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious hold at 3.85% reflects mixed economic signals and a 6-3 board split, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, suggesting future rate cuts likely.

  • On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at 3.85% after the July 7-8 meeting, with a six-to-three vote, following two cuts earlier this year.
  • Amid a cautious strategy, the board held rates, as concerns over June quarter inflation exceeding forecasts influenced their decision.
  • Unemployment at 4.3% reveals a resilient labor market, prompting the RBA to hold rates and impact mortgage and market expectations.
  • Markets responded by lifting expectations of a 3.6% rate cut at August 11-12, with Abhijit Surya saying, `We doubt the RBA will remain on the sidelines for much longer.`
  • Looking ahead, markets see three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, suggesting ongoing easing expectations.
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PerthNow broke the news in City of Perth, Australia on Monday, July 21, 2025.
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