Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves

Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves

A contentious $7 million bet on prediction platform Polymarket has sparked disagreement between the Polymarket and UMA communities. The bet, which speculated on whether Ukraine would agree to a mineral deal with U.S. President Donald Trump before April, saw its "yes" probability surge from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, despite no official agreement being reached.Polymarket relies on UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the outcom…

Polymarket’s $7M Ukraine Mineral Deal Debacle Traced to Oracle Whale

Polymarket will not reimburse bettors after a prediction market was resolved early with an inaccurate result.The market about whether Ukraine would agree to a deal with the Trump Administration for rare earth minerals was supposed to resolve either when a deal was reached or by March 31, whichever came sooner. Instead, it appears that a whale with as much as five million governance tokens for the UMA oracle used by Polymarket was able to force t…

Polymarket Faces Governance Manipulation Allegations After $7M Bet on Ukraine-Trump Deal

Polymarket, a decentralized stock market for predictions, is facing a crisis moment.

Polymarket Investigates Alleged Governance Attack on $7 Million Bet

Between March 24 and 25, a $7 million bet on Polymarket titled “Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?” saw its “yes” chance surge from 9% to 100%, raising concerns of potential market manipulation. The bet was resolved in favor of the “yes” outcome, despite Ukraine not having officially agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s deal concerning access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources. Allegations of UMA Whale Manipulation Multip…

Key points of the news Controversial outcome of the bet: Polymarket's political bet was resolved with a "Yes" on whether Trump would close a rare-earth mineral agreement with Ukraine, despite the lack of an official agreement, which raised concerns about integrity in decision-making. Charges of attacks on governance: An important Wale of the UMA Protocol is accused of manipulating the results by leveraged millions of tokens in multiple accounts,…

Polymarket Breaks 'Deafening' Silence on Oracle Manipulation Allegations

Users allege a market for President Trump making a deal with Ukraine before April has resolved to "yes" because of large holders of UMA tokens.