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Over Half of Americans Expect a Political Candidate Will Be Assassinated Within 5 Years, New Survey Shows

  • On Monday, a Politico and Public First poll of 2,051 American adults conducted Oct. 18–21 found the majority expect a political candidate will be assassinated within five years.
  • Analysts point to deep partisanship, economic dispossession, online conspiracy theories, poor mental-health infrastructure, and armed militias injecting violence, observers note.
  • Poll details show expectation of an assassination is nearly identical across partisan lines: 53% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters and 55% of Donald Trump voters, with 24% of respondents saying violence is sometimes justified.
  • The mood across the country is marked by profound bipartisan anxiety, as most Democrats and Republicans agree the American public expects political violence to escalate in the coming years.
  • Documented increases since 2016 indicate nearly three times as many partisan attacks and at least 300 political violence cases between Jan. 6 and the 2024 election, analysts say.
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Mediaite broke the news in United States on Monday, November 3, 2025.
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