US EditionIMD Revises Upward Monsoon Forecast to 106% of Long-Period Average, Likely Boost to Rural Economy
- The southwest monsoon arrived early over Kerala on May 24, 2025, eight days before the usual June 1 date, marking the earliest onset since 2009.
- Favorable factors like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and a depression over the Arabian Sea caused this early onset and rapid progress.
- The India Meteorological Department revised its forecast upward, predicting 106% of the long-period average rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, benefiting key kharif crops and agriculture.
- IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mahapatra stated the seasonal rainfall is likely 106% of the LPA with a model error of plus-minus 4%, emphasizing that rainfall distribution will be critical.
- The above-normal monsoon could enhance rural incomes, boost foodgrain production, and ease inflation, but challenges like crop damage and supply disruptions also emerged due to early rains.
17 Articles
17 Articles
Why monsoon came knocking sooner than expected? Breaking down it's early onset this year
The southwest monsoon made an early onset over Kerala on May 24, 2025, marking its earliest arrival since 2009 and eight days ahead of the typical June 1 onset date. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the onset, noting that the monsoon also advanced into parts of northeast India, including Mizoram, on the same day. Several meteorological factors contributed to this early onset: Enhanced Cross-Equatorial Winds: Stronger-than-usu…
IMD revises upward monsoon forecast to 106% of long-period average, likely boost to rural economy
A good rainfall would not only give a boost to the agrarian economy but also percolates down to building strong rural demand, which positively impacts a host of sectors including fast moving consumer goods.
Do it yourself: Watchlist for investors
The macro environment in India looks stable and resilient, despite the scare of war and trade uncertainties. The south-west monsoon has started on a buoyant note, and IMD reconfirmed its forecast of above normal (106% of LPA) for the current season. Enhanced dividend payout by the RBI has lessened fiscal slippage concerns. Concerted efforts by the RBI to improve system liquidity have also yielded positive results. Fiscal strength, benign inflati…
India to see above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025, says IMD
India is likely to receive more rainfall than usual during the monsoon season from June to September. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country may get 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), up from last month’s estimate of 105%. Rainfall is also expected to be higher than normal in June. The IMD said rainfall could reach 108% of the LPA this month. This means the country could see more than 87 cm of rain, which is considered th…
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