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Survation Poll Puts Andy Burnham 3 Points Ahead in Makerfield By-Election

Survation’s poll of 369 likely voters puts Labour on 43% and Reform on 40%, underscoring a contest that could go to the wire.

  • A Survation poll published Saturday shows a tight race in the Makerfield By-Election, with Labour candidate Andy Burnham at 43% and Reform candidate Robert Kenyon at 40%.
  • Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham launched his campaign on Friday, promising to "change Labour" while seeking to beat Nigel Farage's party in a contest that could pave his way to Westminster.
  • Reform candidate Robert Kenyon said he is "ready to take on the King of the North," while Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdrew Thursday after controversial social media posts emerged.
  • Nigel Farage responded to the poll by calling the contest a "two horse race," as Reform aims to capitalize on recent local election wins where the party secured 24 of 25 available seats.
  • The seat became available after former Labour MP Josh Simons resigned earlier this month, following his 2024 victory by 5,399 votes in the constituency.
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  • 40% of the sources lean Left
40% Left

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The National Pulse broke the news on Saturday, May 23, 2026.
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