LLM Reasoning Benchmarks are Statistically Fragile: New Study Shows Reinforcement Learning RL Gains often Fall within Random Variance

LLM Reasoning Benchmarks are Statistically Fragile: New Study Shows Reinforcement Learning RL Gains often Fall within Random Variance

Reasoning capabilities have become central to advancements in large language models, crucial in leading AI systems developed by major research labs. Despite a surge in research focused on understanding and enhancing LLM reasoning abilities, significant methodological challenges persist in evaluating these capabilities accurately. The field faces growing concerns regarding evaluation rigor as non-reproducible or inconclusive assessments risk dist…