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Ken Paxton narrowly leads John Cornyn in new poll of Texas’ Senate GOP runoff

The University of Houston poll shows Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, with Hunt voters leaning Paxton and 7% of voters undecided.

  • Attorney General Ken Paxton leads U.S. Sen. John Cornyn 48% to 45% in a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll of likely GOP runoff voters, suggesting the May 26 contest will be narrowly decided.
  • Paxton's campaign is raising far less than anticipated as he "struggles" to rake in donations, with major donors who previously backed his state runs now sitting out amid a divide between business-oriented conservatives favoring Cornyn and the MAGA base.
  • Voters without college degrees favor Paxton by 17 points, while Cornyn leads among degree-holders; 95% of Paxton's March supporters plan to back him again this month compared to 91% for Cornyn.
  • State Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy 48% to 39% in the attorney general race, while Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright leads activist Bo French 35% to 28%, according to the Hobby School survey.
  • Democratic nominee James Talarico leads both Republicans in recent polling, raising concerns that supporters of the losing candidate may stay home or cast protest votes in November, potentially aiding the Democrat.
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  • 63% of the sources lean Left
63% Left

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tpr.org broke the news on Tuesday, May 5, 2026.
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