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Japan estimates feared megaquake could cause $1.8 trln in damage, kill 300,000 people

  • On Monday, a Japanese government task force projected that a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Nankai Trough could result in up to 298,000 deaths and 12.3 million evacuees across 31 of Japan's 47 prefectures.
  • Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries and the Nankai Trough, a 900km tremulous seabed zone off Japan's southwest Pacific coast where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting under the Eurasian Plate, has an 80% chance of experiencing a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake.
  • The projected economic losses could reach 270.3 trillion yen , nearly half of Japan's total GDP, with 215,000 deaths potentially caused by tsunami, though increasing the immediate evacuation rate to 70% could reduce tsunami deaths to 94,000.
  • The government's 2014 basic plan for disaster prevention aimed to reduce fatalities by 80 percent, but despite mitigation efforts, the current projections fall short, necessitating revisions in evacuation strategies and infrastructure improvements, especially in the Tokai region where severe damage and the highest death toll in Shizuoka are expected.
  • To bolster resilience against future disasters, the government will revise its disaster prevention plan, designate additional priority areas based on expanded flood risk zones, develop a new national resilience plan for fiscal 2026-2030 to accelerate infrastructure development, and establish a new agency for disaster prevention in fiscal 2026, allocating over ¥20 trillion to strengthen essential public utilities and disaster prevention.
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読売新聞オンライン broke the news in Japan on Sunday, March 30, 2025.
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