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Tropical Depression #2 Forms in the Gulf
Forecasters say the system is drifting north-northwest at 2 mph with 25 mph winds, and more model guidance is expected after 2 p.m.
On Saturday, July 18, 2026, the National Hurricane Center designated a disorganized mass of thunderstorms off the Florida Gulf Coast as Invest 91-L, which currently has a low probability of tropical development.
The NHC uses the term "invest" as a shorthand for "area of investigation" to identify systems potentially developing into tropical depressions, allowing forecasters to access extra data including spaghetti plots.
Forecasters estimate a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance within seven days, though the primary impact will be heavy rainfall rather than damaging winds.
The disturbance is expected to drift northward through early next week, potentially impacting the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, though increasing wind shear will likely inhibit significant intensification.
Colorado State University recently lowered its 2026 forecast to nine named storms, citing strengthening El Niño, yet "it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season," CSU said.