US EditionIMF warns tariffs and geopolitical tensions threaten markets and global growth
The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, highlighting strong AI investment and trade adaptations but warning of risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and market corrections.
- Monday, the IMF upgraded global growth to 3.3% for 2026 in its World Economic Outlook update while warning that renewed tariffs and geopolitical tensions could disrupt markets and growth.
- The fund says concentrated tech spending underpins growth as AI and information technology investment powers resilience and businesses adapt to an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5%.
- Safe-Haven buying pushed gold to a record $4675 an ounce while London markets weakened with the FTSE 100 index and FTSE 250 index falling and US-exposed firms Smith & Nephew and Diageo slipping.
- The IMF advised central banks to prioritise price stability and independence, noting analysts warned higher tariffs could halt near-term interest rate cuts, complicating the monetary policy and interest rate path.
- Looking ahead, AI productivity gains could add about 0.3% to growth this year, but downside growth risk of 0.4% looms as EU diplomats discussed a roughly $107 billion tariff package.
82 Articles
82 Articles
IMF lifts global growth outlook on AI boom
A resilient world economy will endure US President Donald Trump’s shocks to the global trading system this year thanks to the AI investment boom, the IMF forecast Monday. “The global economy is… coming out ahead of what we were expecting” before “Liberation Day,” the IMF’s chief economist said. Even as the organization raised its GDP growth estimates, it warned that risks are “tilted to the downside”: Growth is reliant on a narrow range of secto…
IMF upgrades global growth outlook but warns of AI and trade risks
The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, citing stronger-than-expected resilience in the face of recent trade disruptions and surging investment in artificial intelligence. The revised estimate, up 0.2 percentage points from October 2025, reflects solid performance in the United States, China, and key parts of the euro area. The IMF now expects growth to slow slightly to 3.2% in 2027.
Despite geopolitical and trade tensions, the IMF anticipates stronger than expected global growth, driven by the United States and China.
The world economy unbroken the year of Donald Trump's return to the White House and an unprecedented increase in the average level of duties. But the balance is unstable. In January's update of the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund revises the global growth expected for 2026 to 3.3%, two tenths more than October's estimates, and predicts only a marginal slowdown of 3.2% in 2027. But while the United States, Spain, Germany a…
La Nación, Grupo Nación
udgtvWashington, United States.The IMF revised upwards this Monday its global growth forecast for 2026 thanks to the boost of technological investments, but warned that the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and the resurgence of trade tensions that could cause disruptions.The growth of the world economy will remain stable by 2025, by 3.3% this year, the International Monetary Fund said, 0.2 percentage points more than expected in October.The Fun…
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