US EditionFirst major 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts slightly below-average season
Researchers cite a likely El Niño and forecast 75% of average Atlantic activity, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
- On Thursday, April 9, 2026, Colorado State University researchers released their first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
- Researchers cite the anticipated transition from La Niña to a robust El Niño as the primary driver for the below-average forecast, as the pattern increases vertical wind shear that disrupts tropical storm development.
- The outlook predicts activity at about 75% of a typical season, with a 32% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
- Delián Colón-Burgos, a forecast co-author, emphasized that communities should "take it seriously" regardless of the statistics, noting it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season.
- The team acknowledges the difficulty of April forecasting—termed the "Spring Predictability Barrier"—and will release updated outlooks on June 10, July 8, and August 5.
30 Articles
30 Articles
First hurricane activity forecast of the year calls for a slightly below-average season
Colorado State University has released its first hurricane season activity forecast for the year, which calls for a slightly below-average year and fewer named storms than usual for 2026.CSU forecasts 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. This is lower than the 1991-2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.Sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than average in the western part…
Colorado State University releases forecast for 2026 hurricane season
HARLINGEN, Texas (ValleyCentral) — Colorado State University has released its preliminary forecast for the upcoming 2026 hurricane season. Their report indicates they anticipate a slightly less active season than average this year. Their forecast calls for 13 named storms. The average is 14. Of the named storms, they anticipate six becoming hurricanes, and of those, [...]
First 2026 hurricane season outlook predicts least active Atlantic since 2015
Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) – the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane predictions in the 1980s – issued their first outlook of 2026 Thursday morning, predicting slightly below average named storm and hurricane activity for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Below-normal season predicted for Atlantic hurricanes, but it only takes one to make an impact — and we need it
Colorado State University (CSU) has released its initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average season with 13 hurricanes.
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