Dragon Capital analysts have lowered their 2025 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 2%, but a ceasefire could boost it to 5%.

Dragon Capital analysts have lowered their 2025 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 2%, but a ceasefire could boost it to 5%.

Dragon Capital analysts predict that in the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the war, real GDP growth in 2025 will slow to 2% compared to 0.9% in the first quarter due to the exhaustion of previous growth drivers and the loss of production capacity. In 2026, GDP growth under this scenario is forecast at 1.5% (i.e., a further slowdown), supported by the expansion of the military-industrial complex with a projected production vol…