Tropical Storm Melissa Is Expected to Become a Hurricane. Its Track Is Unclear, but It’s Bringing a Dangerous Threat
Forecasters give a 70% chance Tropical Storm Melissa will form this week amid warm Caribbean waters, but models show wide uncertainty in its future track and strength.
- On October 20, 2025, the National Hurricane Center said Invest 98L has a high chance to form this week and could become Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of 2025.
- Warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear are priming the system, as NHC forecasters say steering currents should slow the wave over conducive conditions, enabling faster organization.
- By Wednesday most models show a tropical storm forming with some strengthening into a hurricane; National Hurricane Center raised development odds to 50% in 48 hours and 80% in seven days.
- Forecasters warned the Windward Islands face showers and thunderstorms through Monday morning, while heavy rains could increase in the ABC Islands, and Puerto Rico residents should stay informed this week.
- Andrew Hazelton said model trends indicate an impact to Haiti and the Dominican Republic is possible as soon as Oct. 23, while hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 and alternate tracks could threaten Florida.
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Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to become a hurricane. Its track is unclear, but it’s bringing a dangerous threat
By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert (CNN) — Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the Caribbean Sea, proving this year’s Atlantic hurricane season won’t be wrapping up quietly. The storm could slam the northern Caribbean with pouring rain and strong winds as it strengthens over extremely warm water this week. Melissa’s worst impacts could center on Hispaniola, where significant flooding and dangerous mudslides are possible for parts of the Dominica…
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