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Tropical Storm Melissa Is Expected to Become a Hurricane. Its Track Is Unclear, but It’s Bringing a Dangerous Threat

Forecasters give a 70% chance Tropical Storm Melissa will form this week amid warm Caribbean waters, but models show wide uncertainty in its future track and strength.

  • On October 20, 2025, the National Hurricane Center said Invest 98L has a high chance to form this week and could become Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of 2025.
  • Warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear are priming the system, as NHC forecasters say steering currents should slow the wave over conducive conditions, enabling faster organization.
  • By Wednesday most models show a tropical storm forming with some strengthening into a hurricane; National Hurricane Center raised development odds to 50% in 48 hours and 80% in seven days.
  • Forecasters warned the Windward Islands face showers and thunderstorms through Monday morning, while heavy rains could increase in the ABC Islands, and Puerto Rico residents should stay informed this week.
  • Andrew Hazelton said model trends indicate an impact to Haiti and the Dominican Republic is possible as soon as Oct. 23, while hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 and alternate tracks could threaten Florida.
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Tropical Storm Melissa forms in the Caribbean Sea as forecasters issue a hurricane watch for parts of Haiti

Tropical Storm Melissa forms in the Caribbean Sea as forecasters issue a hurricane watch for parts of Haiti.

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arcamax.com broke the news in on Monday, October 20, 2025.
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