US EditionIMF edges 2025 growth forecast slightly higher, warns tariff risks still dog outlook
UNITED STATES, JUL 29 – The IMF raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3% due to trade front-loading and tariff reductions but cautioned that tariff risks and geopolitical tensions could hinder future growth.
- The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, signaling a slight upward revision from earlier estimates.
- This revision reflects factors such as a surge in front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, lower effective US tariff rates, fiscal expansion, and a weaker dollar.
- Key supporting details include a 0.5% contraction in the US economy in Q1 due to import surges, China's upgraded 4.8% growth projection, and a 0.2 percentage point rise in Euro-area growth to 1%.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, said, "tariffs remain historically high" and warned that despite resilience, the global economy faces elevated uncertainty and risks from trade tensions.
- The outlook implies that while growth appears stronger than initially feared, ongoing tariff policies and geopolitical risks could dampen trade activity and economic expansion going forward.
126 Articles
126 Articles
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IMF raises 2025 growth forecast and warns against global trade tensions
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate from 24.4% to 17.3%. It warned, however, that the global economy faced major risks, including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions, and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates …
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