China’s direct strike threat to Australia is ‘growing’, think tank report finds
The institute says China’s missile and submarine buildup could enable sustained strike operations against Australian targets by 2035.
- On Sunday, June 14, 2026, the Lowy Institute reported that China's capability to conduct direct missile strikes on Australia is growing, driven by expanding weapon stockpiles and South China Sea island bases.
- Beijing's expanding arsenal of long-range missiles, including the DF-26 and DF-27 with ranges up to 8,000km, significantly enhances its ability to strike the Australian mainland.
- Analysts estimate the Chinese navy could operate 25 nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2035, providing the capacity to prosecute sustained strike operations against Australian targets through persistent patrol cycles.
- Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, stated the analysis is "neither hawkish nor dovish," emphasizing that governments must assess military capability rather than just intentions.
- The threat would "dramatically escalate" if Beijing established a military base in the Pacific or deployed long-range bombers, though China's primary military focus remains the Taiwan Strait.
19 Articles
19 Articles
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China's ability to hit Australia with missiles 'real and growing'
New analysis warns that China's military is developing a "real and growing" ability to hit the Australian mainland with missiles, and can already threaten Australia's trade routes, subsea cables and critical infrastructure.
China’s new 8,000km missile can strike Australia
China is capable of a direct missile strike on Australia and the threat is growing as Beijing amasses long-range and hypersonic weapons and builds islands in the South China Sea, an Australian think tank said.
China missile strike threat to Australia growing
China is capable of a direct missile strike on Australia, and the threat is growing as Beijing amasses long-range and hypersonic weapons and builds islands in the South China Sea, an Australian think-tank said on June 14.

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