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Cherry-picking influence: Why China is cautious about filling gaps left by US global retreat

  • Earlier this month, Washington retreated from 66 global organisations, creating openings that analysts say Beijing will respond to cautiously and selectively.
  • Beijing's domestic pressures — including the 15th Five-Year Plan — and the Communist Party's 21st Congress in 2027 raise costs and risks, limiting expansive external commitments.
  • Areas such as development and capacity‑building could see China expand influence in UN DESA and regional gaps like SPREP and ReCAAP, increasing reliance on Chinese finance, assistance and technical missions.
  • The International Law Commission stands out as an area of consequence, as China and Russia may shape draft texts without US influence, while analysts predict a more contested, uneven multipolar order.
  • Analysts expect Beijing to `cherry‑pick` engagements, favouring multilateral channels like the United Nations that share burdens and emphasise controllability and fairness, fellow Sun Chenghao said, with decisions unfolding in the coming year.
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  • 45% of the sources lean Right
45% Right

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CFACT broke the news in on Saturday, January 17, 2026.
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