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Canadian firms' outlooks dimmed after trade talks collapse, BoC survey finds

A survey of around 340 business leaders found weaker export sales and softer hiring intentions, while the business outlook indicator edged up to -0.33.

  • On Monday, the Bank of Canada reported Canadian business sentiment deteriorated following the breakdown of trade talks with the United States, according to a survey of around 340 leaders.
  • The breakdown of trade talks triggered new United States tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, weighing on firm outlooks; nevertheless, sentiment remains considerably stronger than at last year's peak of tensions.
  • Weaker export sales and higher input costs partially reversed earlier improvements, the Business Outlook Survey reported, while firms' hiring intentions remain soft and wage growth expectations are largely unchanged.
  • Separate Bank of Canada data shows more than 50% of consumers anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, as energy costs from the Middle East drive headline inflation higher.
  • Money markets price in a Bank of Canada hold on October 28, though Governor Tiff Macklem remains ready to hike rates if inflation spreads before year-end.
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Market Screener broke the news in Annecy, France on Monday, October 19, 2026.
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