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NATO 5% pledge to add $63B to deficit by 2035, budget watchdog says

The Parliamentary Budget Office warns Canada must increase defence spending by $33.5 billion annually to meet NATO's 5% GDP target, raising the deficit by $63 billion by 2035.

  • On Feb. 5, 2026, the Parliamentary Budget Office warned the federal budget deficit will rise by $63 billion in 2035-36, due to defence spending plans.
  • Last year, NATO members agreed to a five per cent defence target—3.5 per cent for militaries and 1.5 per cent for infrastructure—and Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged at the 2025 NATO leaders summit to meet it.
  • The analysis estimates meeting core 3.5 per cent military spending will require $33.5 billion per year and increase the federal debt-to-GDP ratio by 6.3 percentage points by 2035.
  • The Parliamentary Budget Office criticized the Government of Canada for not publishing supporting projection data and said the Department of National Defence rebuffed its request for a year-by-year spending path.
  • That contrasts with earlier government estimates, as DND pointed to NATO-based $150 billion and $60 billion mappings, while senior federal officials cited $150 billion total costs.
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The increase in defence spending to meet the NATO target is expected to add $63 billion to the deficit by 2035, says the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

·Montreal, Canada
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City News broke the news in Toronto, Canada on Thursday, February 5, 2026.
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