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A 200-foot asteroid has a 4 percent chance of hitting the moon in 2032—and we could see it

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4.3% chance to impact the Moon in 2032, potentially creating a 1-kilometer crater and an optical flash visible from Earth.

If an incoming asteroid hits the moon, it will be visible from Earth, according to a new study

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Recent research has warned that asteroid 2024 YR4, a rocky body that travels through the inner solar system, presents a concrete probability of impacting against the surface of the Moon, in what would be one of the most significant collisions recorded in modern times. The object has an estimated size of about 60 meters in diameter, dimensions comparable to a multi-story building. According to studies carried out by scientists from the University…

Light flash, meteor storm and record moon quakes: If the asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the moon in 2032, this would have spectacular consequences. Even with the naked eye, the lightening of this impact could be seen as new analyses suggest. The approximately 60-meter-sized asteroid would also cause the strongest ever measured moon quakes and a day-long afterglow. It would also be possible to think that ejected debris of the impact would fall back to the…

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Scientific American broke the news in on Wednesday, February 4, 2026.
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