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UFC Fight Night Odds, Main Fight Card, Predictions: Bautista vs. Oliveira Picks From 10,000 Simulations

Mario Bautista secured a submission victory over Vinicius Oliveira in the five-round bantamweight main event at UFC Fight Night 266, breaking Oliveira's four-fight win streak.

  • On Saturday at UFC Fight Night 266, a five-round bantamweight main event between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira took place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, with prelims at 5 p.m. ET and the main card at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
  • With recent form contrasting, Bautista entered with a 16-3-0 record seeking to rebound after a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, while Oliveira arrived on a rapid rise after winning Dana White's Contender Series and four UFC victories.
  • Metrics show Vinicius Oliveira's 1.5-inch reach and 50% takedown accuracy edge, while Mario Bautista lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute and has a 0.80 submission average.
  • BetMGM/USA TODAY odds listed Bautista at-145 and Oliveira at +120, with 'FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE' at YES +130, according to source.
  • Pre-Fight analysis suggested a longer, tactical main event, as Bautista had gone the distance in 5 fights and Oliveira's last 3 went to the judges, leaving fans wanting more action.
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Mario Bautista secures submission victory in main-event debut

Bantamweight Mario Bautista passed his first UFC main-event test with flying colors, securing a second-round rear-naked-choke submission against Vinicius Oliveira of Brazil to cap a six-fight UFC Vegas 113 main card on Saturday.

·Georgia, United States
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Mario Bautista showed he still belongs in the top tier of the bantamweight division when he finished Vinicius Oliveira in the main event at UFC Vegas 113. After the dominant victory, he set his sights on Cory Sandhagen on his way to a title shot. Mario Bautista entered the main event in Las Vegas with the goal of reminding everyone that he is one of the world’s top bantamweights. After his eight-fight winning streak was snapped in a decision aga…

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North Jersey broke the news in New Jersey, United States on Saturday, February 7, 2026.
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