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CFTC Warns Prediction Markets over Mention Contracts
On Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance to regulated entities, warning that 'mention markets'—betting on individuals' words or actions—carry heightened manipulation risk.
These contracts are 'presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation' because outcomes depend on a person's discrete conduct rather than independently verifiable events outside an individual's control, the CFTC noted.
Recent enforcement includes a lifetime ban for former Representative George Santos following wagering accusations, and a $172,539 fine for White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez for insider trading on President Donald Trump's speeches.
Rather than imposing an outright ban, the CFTC advised exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket to implement independent verifiability, public scrutiny, and oversight measures to detect manipulation.
CFTC Chair Mike Selig welcomed the guidance, stating 'regulatory clarity drives sound markets' while reminding exchanges of their legal obligation to list only contracts not susceptible to manipulation.