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UK inflation rises by more than expected to 3.5% as war drives up fuel prices

Motor fuel prices drove the increase, and economists said the Bank of England is likely to raise rates next month.

  • The Consumer Prices Index rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, marking the highest annual inflation rate in 12 months.
  • Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe squeezed global oil supplies, driving petrol and diesel prices sharply higher, with average diesel surpassing £2 a litre this month, according to RAC figures.
  • Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, UK economists for Pantheon, attributed the surge to higher motor fuel costs, while the end of a temporary summer VAT cut also contributed to rising prices.
  • The price acceleration ahead of John Healey's first Budget cemented expectations for a Monetary Policy Committee interest rate hike, reversing the Bank of England's prior easing cycle.
  • September's reading continues an upward inflation trend in Britain, following earlier prints of 2.9% and 3.1%, as energy shocks have driven overall price pressures throughout the summer.
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The figure exceeds by a tenth the consensus of analysts consulted by Bloomberg, and marks a net increase from the August data (3.1% year-on-year). The September figure complicates the task of the British Labour government, which wants to fight against the shortage of life and which in one week must present its draft budget for 2027.

·Issy-les-Moulineaux, France
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
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