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Birth order and disease risk across the human phenome - Nature Health

Researchers found 150 diseases differed by birth order, with first-born children facing more autism and allergy risk and second-borns more substance abuse and migraines.

  • On August 4, 2026, researchers published a study in Nature Health identifying 150 diseases with statistically significant links to birth order across 10 million U.S. siblings.
  • Analyzing 2003–2024 Merative MarketScan data from 5.1 million two-child families, the study mapped 569 diagnoses to examine where birth-order patterns diverge and persist within families.
  • First-Borns showed higher odds for neurodevelopmental and immune-allergic conditions including autism and ADHD, while second-borns had higher recorded odds for substance abuse and gastrointestinal disorders.
  • While authors suggest birth order may serve as a modest risk marker for family counseling, they caution that findings do not prove causation and rely on insurance claims data.
  • Researchers point to the "hygiene hypothesis" and factors like parental age to explain these patterns, noting that some associations weaken with wider sibling spacing.
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Birth order can affect the risk of developing the disease.

·Helsinki, Finland
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Birth order and disease risk across the human phenome

Birth-order effects on disease risk have been studied for individual conditions but have not been systematically assessed at phenome-wide scale in large sibling claims cohorts. We apply two complementary designs, a between-family matched cohort (1.6 million pairs) as a high-powered phenome-wide scan, and a within-family sibling comparison (5.1 million families) as an internally controlled sibling contrast, to 569 diseases in Merative MarketScan claims data. Of 418 diseases with adequate case counts, 150 show Bonferroni-significant associations. First-borns carry excess risk for neurodevelopmental conditions (other/unspecified pervasive-developmental-disorder (PDD) code group odds ratio (OR) = 0.57, autism OR = 0.74, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder OR = 0.93) and immune-allergic diseases (food allergy OR = 0.80, allergic rhinitis OR = 0.91); second-borns for substance abuse (OR = 1.19) and gastrointestinal conditions (gastritis/duodenitis OR = 1.14). Across diseases analyzed in both designs, between-family and within-family estimates were positively correlated (r = 0.66; 74.2% directionally concordant); 84.7% of Bonferroni-significant between-family hits agreed in direction. Results are robust to state fixed effects (r > 0.99), full-sibling restriction and stricter clinical rematching (r = 0.93). These findings provide a comprehensive map of birth-order effects in the human disease phenome. In multiple study designs involving millions of matched individuals, either between or within families, birth order determined differential associations with disease risk across 569 diseases.

·London, United Kingdom
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medrxiv.org broke the news on Friday, March 27, 2026.
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