US EditionClimate change cuts crop yields, even with adaptation efforts: Study
UNITED STATES, JUN 18 – A new study finds farmers’ adaptations offset only about one-third of climate change damages, with global staple crop yields projected to drop 11.2% by 2100 under moderate warming scenarios.
- A 2025 study led by a University of Illinois researcher projects that, despite adaptation measures, global yields of the six primary staple crops could decline by around 25% by the end of the century due to climate change.
- The study analyzed data from over 12,000 regions in 55 countries and found wealthier breadbasket regions face larger losses due to warming of about 3°C by 2100, roughly our current trajectory.
- Corn and wheat, especially in the U.S., Canada, China, and Russia, are projected to decline by 30 to 40%, while rice is more adaptable and may avoid large losses under warming.
- Hultgren noted that the regions facing the greatest risks tend to suffer the most significant losses, estimating that each 1°C rise in temperature would reduce food availability by about 120 calories per person each day.
- The study warns that such yield declines could lead to higher food prices globally and raise concerns over food security and political stability, especially in poorer countries with limited adaptation resources.
65 Articles
65 Articles
Climate change is set to shrink crop yields in top farming nations, raising global hunger risks
Humanity’s most productive farmlands, including those in the U.S. Midwest, are likely to face sharp declines in food output due to climate change, threatening calorie availability worldwide.Umair Irfan reports for Vox.In short:A new Nature study finds that global yields of six staple crops — including maize, wheat, and soybeans — could drop 11.2% by 2100 under a moderate warming scenario.These losses are expected to hit major agricultural region…
To the Mainstream Media: Quit Lying About Crop Yields, They Are Increasing, Not in Decline - ClimateRealism
A number of mainstream media outlets carried stories claiming that climate change threatens crop yields and production, among them The Hill, Yahoo News, CNN, and The Guardian. That claim is refuted by everything botany, agronomy, data on crop yields, and the general greening of the Earth tell us about the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Each of the reports cite a single study as evidence, yet its findings are flatly contra…
Mother Jones mag: ‘Future Climate Means No More Breakfast’ – ‘Bad news not just for farmers, but also for everyone who eats’ – Cites new study published in the journal Nature
“Looking at that 3 degrees centigrade warmer [than the year 2000] future corresponds to about a 13 percent loss in daily recommended per capita caloric consumption,” Andrew Hultgren, an agriculture researcher at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said. “That’s like everyone giving up breakfast … about 360 calories for each person, for each day.”
Future climate means no more breakfast
This story was originally published by Vo and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Globally, humanity is producing more food than ever, but that harvest is concentrated in just a handful of bread baskets. More than one-third of the world’s wheat and barley exports come from Ukraine and Russia, for example. Some of these highly productive farmlands, including major crop-growing regions in the United States, are on track t…
Climate change threatens the supply of food: Every degree around which the earth warms reduces food production. Researchers in Europe also expect crop yields to fall. According to one study, 120 kilocalories per person per day can be produced less per degree Celsius of global warming. This is 4.4 percent of the recommended daily consumption. If the climate warms up by three degrees, it is "as if every person in the world misses breakfast", Solom…
Climate change will reduce the planet's ability to feed: even if agricultural practices are adapted, global calorie yields of six major crops, including wheat or rice, will be 11-24% lower by 2100, according to a study published on Wednesday in Nature. ...
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