US EditionTexas 2026 Primary Poll: Talarico & Paxton with Narrow Edges in Senate Primaries - Emerson Polling
Polls show Ken Paxton leads GOP primary with 40% support; James Talarico narrowly leads Democratic primary by 52% to 47%, setting up competitive runoffs.
- On March 3, Emerson College Polling's final survey shows State Rep. James Talarico leading U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett 52%-47% and Ken Paxton ahead of Sen. John Cornyn 40%-36%, with fieldwork Feb. 26-27.
- Shifts since January show Talarico gained five points, Crockett nine, and Paxton's support rose 13 points versus Cornyn's ten, while early-vote and Election Day turnout splits make results decisive.
- The poll's methodology shows n=850 likely Democratic primary voters and n=547 likely Republican primary voters surveyed with +/-3.3% and +/-4.1% margins, using Emerson College Polling field methods Feb. 26-27, 2026.
- Prediction-Market traders assign Paxton an 81% chance and Talarico a 75% chance, with about $2.2 million wagered, while Republicans hold a 53-47 U.S. Senate advantage and Democrats need four seats.
- As one of the first big tests of 2026, Tuesday's primary in Texas could signal momentum since the state hasn't elected a Democratic U.S. senator in more than three decades, while $110 million in campaign ad spending highlights the race's national impact.
13 Articles
13 Articles
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