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Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run-off simulation, poll shows

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied within a 1-point margin in a run-off simulation among 5,028 Brazilian voters.

  • On Wednesday, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the upcoming election.
  • Under Brazilian electoral law, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners advance to a second-round vote, occurring in every election since 2002.
  • The survey shows Senator Bolsonaro with 47.6% support against Lula's 46.6%, a difference within the poll's margin of error of one percentage point.
  • Financial markets have tracked these polls closely since former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son, Senator Bolsonaro, causing Brazil's currency and equities to slide in December.
  • Seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, 80-year-old Lula, who defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, faces the right-wing challenge from Senator Bolsonaro.
Insights by Ground AI

14 Articles

Lean Right

A new poll of the Atlas Intel institute, commissioned by Bloomberg news agency, has placed for the first time, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the first-born of former President Jair Bolsonaro , numerically ahead of the current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a second-round drill for the October elections this year. Flavio, who as his military father in the Liberal Party (PL) would have 47.6% of the voting intentions against 46.6% of the left l…

·Spain
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Lean Left

On the way to the elections in Brazil 2026, a poll places Flávio Bolsonaro, on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the current president of the country who already had a consecutive reelection. Polls on the second round in the elections in Brazil 2026, indicate that Lula da Silva has a disadvantage of 1%. Elections in Brazil 2026: Lula loses the lead against Bolsonaro, according to preliminaries In October 2026 the elections will be held in Brazil 2026, …

ReutersReuters
+3 Reposted by 3 other sources
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Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run-off simulation, poll shows

·United Kingdom
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  • 46% of the sources lean Right
46% Right

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CartaCapital broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
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