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Swinney says Scottish independence referendum could be held in 2028

Swinney said an SNP majority could trigger a referendum within two years, while Labour and the Lib Dems urged focus on health and cost of living.

  • First Minister John Swinney said an SNP majority in May's election could open the path to a second independence referendum by 2028, positioning it as a democratic mandate for Scotland's future.
  • Under a strategy agreed by SNP members last year, winning more than 65 seats would trigger negotiations for a second vote, following the precedent set in 2011 and 2014.
  • During a BBC Scotland Debate Night in Paisley, Labour Health Secretary Wes Streeting ruled out a referendum even if SNP wins, while Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay called independence an "unmitigated disaster."
  • Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar countered that the election should focus on the economy and NHS, while Swinney warned the UK government "can't stand in the face of the democratic wish of the people of Scotland."
  • Recent YouGov polling shows the SNP on track to win 67 seats in May, maintaining a majority, though turnout could fall to the low to mid 50s compared to 63.5% in 2021.
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Bias Distribution

  • 34% of the sources lean Left, 33% of the sources are Center, 33% of the sources lean Right
34% Left

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The Herald Scotland broke the news in Scotland, United Kingdom on Sunday, April 12, 2026.
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