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India Is the Canary in the Global Inflation Coal Mine

  • On Monday, The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released data showing India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, up from 3.93 per cent in May.
  • Higher prices of petrol, diesel, and CNG, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and a weak monsoon pushed up retail inflation, with food inflation reaching 5.32 per cent in June.
  • Transport inflation rose to 4.31 per cent in June, with services related to transportation of goods hitting 7.70 per cent; rural food inflation was 5.45 per cent, while urban food prices were 5.09 per cent.
  • This marks the first time in 17 months that the country's retail inflation rate has exceeded The Reserve Bank's 4 per cent target, though it remains within the acceptable 2 per cent to 6 per cent range.
  • The Reserve Bank has been tasked with maintaining retail inflation at 4 per cent through March 31, 2031, even as potato prices fell 20.34 per cent and tomato prices dropped 31.92 per cent in June.
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The Hindu Business Line broke the news in Chennai, India on Monday, July 13, 2026.
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