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Iran-Israel Conflict May Add up to $10 Risk Premium to Oil

Summary by AGBI
Brent crude hits $75 per barrel Iran produced 3.3m bpd in 2024 Opec has spare capacity The risk premium in oil prices linked to the Iran-Israel conflict is expected to stay within the $5 to $10 range, global ratings agency Fitch has said. However, any disruption to Iran’s production or export infrastructure will add more upward pressure to prices. Brent crude oil prices rose to around $75 per barrel from nearly $65 per barrel before the conflict…
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Market Consensus Morgan Stanley Attacks between Israel and Iran open up different possibilities for the crude market, among which Martijn Rats highlights three possible scenarios. Given the increase in uncertainty, Martijn introduces a $10 risk premium in his estimates on Brent. Scenario 1: Brent's flow is unaffected, with unchanged export figures and Brent dropping to $60/b. Scenario 2: marked by a reduction in exports in Iran, which reduces t…

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Consenso del Mercado broke the news in on Monday, June 16, 2025.
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