What if the Polls and Prediction Markets Are Wrong? As We Reach the Finish Line, the Midterm Elections Have Become Extremely Chaotic

What if the Polls and Prediction Markets Are Wrong? As We Reach the Finish Line, the Midterm Elections Have Become Extremely Chaotic

Expectations can be a very powerful thing. The polls and the prediction markets are both telling us that it is very likely that the midterm elections will give the Democrats control of both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Many on the left believe that victory is wrapped up, and they are already […]

The Polls and Prediction Markets Have Been Wrong All Year

The experts and the bettors have spoken. A Democratic bloodbath is coming. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats roughly 94 percent odds of taking the House and 70 to 75 percent of taking the Senate. The generic ballot sits at something like Democrats plus eight. Texas is suddenly a Democratic Senate seat. Kansas […]