Over 150 Polymarket Wallets Linked to Likely Military Insider Trading, Study Finds
ACDC says the wallets earned about $8 million with a 97.2% win rate and may have signaled confidential military information to copycat traders.
- On Thursday, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective reported that 152 Polymarket wallets likely traded on inside U.S. military information, collectively earning $8 million with a 97.2% win rate.
- ACDC identified 556 wallets dubbed 'Orcas,' traders placing highly successful long-shot bets of at least $2,500 in niche markets where insiders possess informational advantages, typically cashing out quickly after winning.
- Evidence suggests military 'Orca' trades attract copycat wagers from deep-pocketed 'Whales' and bots; when an 'Orca' bet on U.S. military action in Iran, copycat wagers reached $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.
- ACDC argues simple identity verification is insufficient, advocating for banning markets where non-public information is most actionable, stating "Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations … will not be enough."
- Policymakers are increasing scrutiny following bets ahead of U.S. military actions, including a soldier charged for betting on Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro's removal, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pushes for stricter jurisdiction.
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41 Articles
Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says
The prediction site Polymarket referred dozens of accounts that showed signs of potential military insider trading to the Justice Department for investigation, a senior company official told CNN.
Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains
Study Finds 152 Polymarket Wallets Likely Exploited Military Secrets For $8 Million In Gains A new study has concluded that 152 Polymarket wallets may have profited from access to secret information about military action, with other wallets copying the insiders' bets. The patterns raise red flags about foreign adversaries' potential exploitation of insiders' profit-seeking to anticipate American strikes. Released on Thursday by the Anti-Corrup…
152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate
More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have used non-public US military information to win about $8 million (£5.86 million) on defence-related wagers, according to a new report that is intensifying scrutiny of prediction markets. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found 152 wallets on Polymarket International that made unusually successful bets on military and defence markets. Moreover, the wallets collectively earned about $8 million and had an …
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Joo Jong-guk = Roy... 152 electronic wallets (accounts) suspected of betting using inside U.S. military information on the prediction market Polymarket were discovered.
Gamblers have made $8 million betting on military operations
Researchers say the win rate among 152 accounts on Polymarket is so high that they are “the most likely insiders” betting on the site. The post Gamblers have made $8 million betting on military operations appeared first on Task & Purpose.
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